Illinois Legislative News: May 19, 2025
Third Reading Consulting Group
Last week, the Illinois House and Senate settled in for a week full of committee hearings and floor debate following the opposite chamber committee deadline on May 9. The end of session is rapidly approaching, with the opposite chamber third reading deadline on May 23 and adjournment on May 31. With May 31 fast approaching, leadership is preparing their FY 2026 budget despite national economic uncertainty, potential federal government cuts, and limited revenue growth.
At the beginning of May, both COGFA and GOMB released updated revenue projections for FY 2025 and FY 2026. With strong April revenues, COGFA increased its FY 2025 revenue projection to $53.931B, up 0.6% (or $317M) from its March revenue estimate of $53.614B and up 1.22% (or $632M) over the $53.281B revenue estimate at the time of the FY 2025 budget’s passage. GOMB, which last released revenue projections in February along with the governor’s budget address, also slightly increased its FY 2025 projection to $53.919B, up 0.04% (or $19M) from its February revenue estimate of $53.900B and up 1.2% (or $631M) over the estimate at the time of the FY 2025 budget’s passage. COGFA and GOMB project that FY 2025 will be the highest revenue year in state history, surpassing FY 2023. At a difference of only $12M, the two agencies’ projections are essentially identical.
GOMB and COGFA also aligned their FY 2026 projections. COGFA increased its FY 2026 revenue projection to $54.490B, up 0.5% (or $266M) from its March FY 2026 revenue estimate of $54.224B. This revision is a result of corresponding increases to its FY 2025 baseline projection. More notably, GOMB decreased its FY 2026 revenue projection to $54.917B, down 1.0% (or $536M) from its February revenue estimate of $55.453B. GOMB’s February projection was higher than COGFA’s March estimate for a few key reasons: (1) GOMB’s projection included the $492M in revenue increases from the governor’s budget proposal, (2) COGFA’s projection included collections from February, whereas GOMB only had January numbers, and (3) GOMB had a more optimistic economic outlook at the time. When factoring out the $492M in potential revenue increases that have not passed yet, GOMB’s FY 2026 revenue estimate stands at $54.425B. The recent changes by both agencies bring their projections in line with each other, differing by only 0.12% (or $65M). Both agencies projected conservatively, preparing for potential federal government cuts.
Important Upcoming Dates – Statewide
May 23 – Opposite Chamber Third Reading Deadline
May 31 – Adjournment