Illinois Legislative News: May 20, 2024
Third Reading Consulting Group
The U.S. Census Bureau published its 2023 City and Town Population Estimates. Illinois’ estimated population stands at 12,549,689, ranking it as the sixth most populous state in the country. The Census Bureau estimates that Illinois lost 263,780 residents, or approximately 2% of its population, since the last decennial Census between 2020 and 2023. These numbers reflect an accelerated nationwide shift in population away from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in the last year Illinois’ population losses have slowed, with the state only losing an estimated 33,000 people or 0.26% of its population from 2022 to 2023.
Over 70% of the population loss since 2020 comes from the estimated 188,000 people who left Cook County, Illinois’ most populous county and home to Chicago. Chicago is estimated to have lost 81,900 people, or approximately 3% of its population from 2020 to 2023. However, the city appears to be moving in the right direction, with an estimated loss of just 0.02% between 2022 and 2023. Chicago remains the third-largest city in the United States, trailing New York City and Los Angeles. Since 2020, Chicago is estimated to have lost the second most total residents of any city in the country, only ahead of New York City, and the third most residents on a per capita basis, ahead of New York City and Philadelphia. Many Cook County suburbs appear to have experienced similar population trends to Chicago since 2020, with losses between 1.5% and 5% of their population.
The collar counties of DuPage, Lake, Kane, Will, and McHenry experienced variation in their population change since 2020. Lake, Kane, and DuPage Counties each lost roughly 1% of their residents from 2020 to 2023, whereas Will and McHenry Counties both gained roughly 1%. Will and McHenry Counties likely gained population due to land availability and real estate price increases in closer-in suburban areas. Kendall County, an exurban county to Chicago, experienced the greatest percentage population gain in the state from 2020 to 2023, growing by 6.1%. Kendall County was already growing quickly prior to the pandemic for similar reasons to Will and McHenry Counties.
The Peoria, Springfield, and Rockford areas saw population losses of around 1% since 2020, continuing trends that existed since before the pandemic. The Bloomington-Normal and Champaign-Urbana areas, which had been among the fastest growing in the state prior to the pandemic, experienced little to no change in population from 2020 to 2023.
The post-2020 figures listed above are annual estimates, rather than the official decennial Census household survey results. Annual estimates are based on factors such as tax returns, Medicare filings, and moving data in and out of the state. It is important to note that Census annual estimates largely projected a population loss from 2010 to 2020, which was not ultimately realized in the 2020 Census figures. Given that the estimated losses already appear to be slowing, relative to 2021 and 2022, Illinois could be gaining in population again by the next official Census count in 2030. Additionally, the Census annual estimate methodology likely failed to account for the arrival of approximately 41,000 migrants to the Chicago area since August 2022.
Important Upcoming Dates – Statewide
May 17 – Opposite Chamber Third Reading Deadline
May 24 – Adjournment
May 25-31 – Contingent Session Days for Budget
November 5 – 2024 General Election